You published a snow forecast. You called 6–10 inches for the I-95 corridor, a rain-snow line through central New England, and double-digit totals north of the Mass Pike.
It snowed.
But how close were you?
That's the question every serious forecaster wants to answer — and almost nobody has a good way to do it. Until now.
ForecasterHQ's storm forecast verification tool pulls real NWS station observations and compares them directly to your published forecast regions. No spreadsheets. No manually hunting CoCoRaHS reports after the fact. You see exactly where you nailed it and where you missed, with the data to back it up.
The Problem Every Indie Forecaster Faces
Publishing a forecast is the easy part. Actually knowing how accurate it was — consistently, over dozens of events — is a different problem.
The tools that exist fall into two camps:
Enterprise verification platforms (like ForecastWatch) are built for commercial weather companies with dedicated verification teams. They run thousands of dollars per year and are designed to audit services that issue millions of data-point forecasts, not individual storm writeups.
Government tools (NOAA MDL, SPC verification pages) are built for meteorologists evaluating gridded numerical model output. They're not designed around a forecaster who issued a regional snowfall map and wants to know if the 6–10" zone verified.
Neither option serves the indie forecaster. Which is why most independent forecasters do one of two things: nothing, or a rough vibe check by scrolling their replies.
ForecasterHQ fixes this.
How the Verification Tool Works
When you publish a forecast on ForecasterHQ, you draw regions on a map and assign predicted ranges — 3–6 inches here, 6–10 inches there, rain-snow line through this corridor. That forecast gets a timestamp and a permanent URL.
After the event, our verification engine does the work:
1. Pulls NWS station observations automatically We query official NWS ASOS, AWOS, and CoCoRaHS station networks for the event window you specified. No manual data entry. No hunting for reports.
2. Maps observations to your forecast zones Each station reading gets matched to the forecast region it falls within. If you called 6–10 inches for a polygon and five stations reported in that polygon, you'll see all five — and how each one compared to your range.
3. Scores your forecast We calculate a hit rate (what percentage of stations fell within your predicted range), a bias indicator (were you systematically too high or too low), and a spatial accuracy score for the rain-snow line placement.
4. Builds your historical track record Every verified event rolls up into your forecaster profile. Over time, you accumulate a transparent track record — something no other platform offers for independent forecasters.
Your Track Record, Publicly
This is the part that matters for building an audience.
Anyone can say they're a good forecaster. ForecasterHQ lets you show it.
Your verification history is part of your public profile. Followers can see your hit rate on winter storms over the past season. When you publish your next forecast, you're not just a name on the internet — you're a forecaster with a documented track record.
That credibility compounds. The forecasters who build real audiences aren't just the ones who call a good storm. They're the ones who can prove they call good storms consistently.
What This Looks Like in Practice
Say you forecast a nor'easter hitting the Mid-Atlantic in early February. You publish a map with three zones:
- Heavy zone (8–14"): Eastern PA through Central NJ
- Moderate zone (4–8"): Southern NJ into Delaware
- Light zone (1–4"): Eastern Shore, southern Delaware
After the storm, ForecasterHQ pulls all available NWS station obs in your forecast area for the event window. You see a station-by-station breakdown:
Philadelphia PHL: 9.2" observed — your heavy zone called 8–14". ✓ Hit. Trenton TEB: 6.1" observed — your heavy zone called 8–14". ✗ Miss (light). Atlantic City ACY: 4.3" observed — your moderate zone called 4–8". ✓ Hit.
You can see immediately: your heavy zone was overdone in the southern half. You clipped the moderate zone boundary about 20 miles too far north. Over multiple events, if that pattern repeats, it shows up in your bias indicators — and you learn something actionable about where your guidance tends to push too aggressively.
This is what the professional verification community calls process improvement. It's how NWS forecast offices audit themselves. Now indie forecasters can do the same thing, for free.
How ForecasterHQ Compares to the Alternatives
| ForecasterHQ | ForecastWatch | ForecastAdvisor | Manual (CoCoRaHS) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Built for indie forecasters | ✓ | ✗ (commercial services) | ✗ (consumer app comparison) | — |
| Automatic data pull | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Compares your forecasts | ✓ | ✓ (enterprise) | ✗ (checks apps) | ✓ (manual) |
| Public track record profile | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Price | Free | $thousands/year | Free (different purpose) | Free (hours of work) |
ForecastAdvisor, to be clear, is a great tool — it compares AccuWeather, NWS, and Weather.com against each other for consumer use. It doesn't track your forecasts. ForecasterHQ tracks your forecasts.
Why Verification Matters More Than You Think
There's a credibility problem in indie weather forecasting. Anyone with a Twitter account and a basic understanding of the GFS can issue a storm forecast. The audience can't easily tell the difference between a forecaster with genuine skill and one who gets lucky on big storms and goes quiet when they bust.
Transparent verification changes that dynamic. It's harder to fake a 70% hit rate over 30 events than it is to screenshot one good call.
The forecasters who will build durable, monetizable audiences over the next five years are the ones who can demonstrate accuracy consistently — not just hype the next big storm. ForecasterHQ's verification tool is built specifically for that.
Built for the NWS Verification Standard
Our methodology follows the WMO and NWS standard verification frameworks — the same approaches used to evaluate official NWS forecasts. We're not inventing a proprietary scoring system. We're applying established meteorological verification methods to individual forecaster output for the first time.
This matters if you ever want to be taken seriously in the broader forecasting community. Your track record on ForecasterHQ is built on defensible methodology.
Get Started
Verification works with any storm forecast you publish on ForecasterHQ. The more forecasts you publish, the more data you accumulate.
If you've been forecasting publicly for a while — on social media, a blog, your own site — and you've wanted a real way to audit your accuracy, this is it.
Verify your first forecast — it's free →
Already have forecasts posted? Check out a live storm forecast example to see what the full workflow looks like before you publish your first one.
Looking to build the forecast maps that go into verification? Our weather forecast map maker walks you through the full process — from drawing zones to publishing.
For a complete overview of what forecast verification means in the context of building an indie forecaster's long-term credibility — not just the mechanics of the tool — see the forecast verification guide.
ForecasterHQ is building tools for independent weather forecasters to publish, verify, and build audiences around their forecasts. The verification feature is free.